Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,347,022$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,253,435.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,253,435.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $121,228$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,771.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(116,771.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,578,246$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,767$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,384.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(102,384.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,512$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,404.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,404.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,120$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $191,410$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,013.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 87.0)}}\) (asimptote \(289,013.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23,377$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(598 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,436.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 79.2)}}\) (asimptote \(35,436.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,387$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,314$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,311.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 149.8)}}\) (asimptote \(141,311.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $536$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(46.3 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{568.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 70.0)}}\) (asimptote \(568.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,084$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,936$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,323.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,323.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $675$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(113 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{637.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(637.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,710$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,943$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(163 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,086.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 140.0)}}\) (asimptote \(121,086.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $405$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(24.4 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{637.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 81.3)}}\) (asimptote \(637.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,077$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,540$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,230.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(25,230.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $582$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{764.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 72.0)}}\) (asimptote \(764.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,061$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,973$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,482.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 76.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,482.6\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $113$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.67 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{633.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(633.7\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,046$ on 2020-06-23
